Scenario Analysis of Wholesale and Retail Trade in Bangladesh: An Empirical Evidence

 

Meher Neger ¹

 

¹ Professor, Department of Marketing, Comilla University, Kotbari, Cumilla, Bangladesh

 

1. INTRODUCTION

The term retail trade is a buyer to customer (B2C) marketing strategy used for selling goods to customers. Another term wholesale trade is business where bulk goods are sold to other companies at a reduced price. Here (B2B) marketing strategy used for selling goods business to business. Wholesale and retail trade services are vital to the efficient and effective flow of goods from business to business and producer to customer. Here, wholesalers act as marketing intermediaries that neither produce nor consume the finished product, but instead sell of goods and commodities to the retailers or the businesses or organization users. While retail trade is the business activity associated with the sale of goods to the final consumer or the ultimate customer. It is the link between wholesalers or manufacturers and the customers of the product.

The study has been considered 19 (nineteen) major sectors to appraise the gross domestic product (GDP) in national accounts. The Wholesale and Retail Trade sector is one of the major sectors which directly contribute in our national economy. The share of retail and wholesale trade in gross domestic product (GDP) now stands at the third highest at 14 percent after the industry and agriculture sector. So, those are gradually becoming the main driver of the economy with their growing contribution to GDP.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics had been conducted the survey based on Wholesale and Retail Trade in 1992-93, 1993-94, 1995-96, 1997-97 and 2002-03 under the integrated program. The last Wholesale and Retail Trade Survey was conducted on 2020. Wholesale and Retail Trade data was required for national accounting for compiling the GDP of Bangladesh and formulating different national policies and administration purposes. The conception of wholesale and retail trade is based on the activity primary relating to the sale of goods and commodities and repair services (motor vehicles and motorcycles, auto- rickshaws and rickshaws) also incorporated here as a permanent establishment. However, based on mentioned surveys around 65 to 75 per cent of all wholesale and retail traders in Bangladesh have been suffering from poor business due to a lack of customers, economic crisis and complications of COVID-19 during the height pandemic in 2020.

During December 2019 corona virus disease (COVID-19) was detected firstly in Wuhan, China. Later it has been spread out Worldwide tremendously and the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared it as a pandemic. The COVID-19 outbreak isn’t only a health crisis but also invading our societies and economies in different nature and it varied from society to society, country to country as well. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic world trade and commerce, education, and other activities have been interrupted. The global supply chain has been broken down for countries lockdown situations. At that time, trade and commerce institutions of Bangladesh has been suffering parallelly by this outbreak. trade and commerce institutions of Bangladesh have to face tremendous losses. However, the COVID-19 pandemic may be changing the trends in the retail and wholesale sector and affecting the labor force of the retail and wholesale sector. In order to gain evidence on the impact that COVID-19 has had on the employment of men and women in the retail sales sector in Bangladesh, the International Labor Organization (ILO), in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), commissioned.

The major objective of this study is to find out the scenario of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh.  The specific objectives of this research are to evaluate the current status of input cost, gross output, gross value added of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh; to determine the impact of Covid-19 on input cost, gross value added and employee’s status of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh; and to give policy options for future potentiality of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh.

There are several segments of the research paper. Initially, the statement of the problem and literature review are provided based on a past study. Then, researcher methodologies that are applied to the current research are described. After that, the paper is presented with the results and interpretations. Next, the discussions, conclusion, and implications sections incorporate the consequences of the present research and its linkups with the previous studies. At the end of the segment, the shortcomings and potential directions of the research are stated.   

 

 

2.  Problem Statement

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the Bangladesh Retail and Wholesale Market owing to the lockdown and restrictions imposed on travel and movement. It led to a decrease in demand for many products, resulting in a decline in sales and revenue. Many retailers have been forced to close their businesses temporarily, while others had to reduce staff and working hours. Consequently, the situation has also led to high prices of some goods as suppliers take advantage of the reduced demand. Of the 18.87 lakh wholesale establishments, 22.93 per cent suffered from a lack of customers, 17.81 per cent were affected by the economic crisis and 33.66 per cent were directly impacted by the pandemic. Moreover, the situation is challenging for the Bangladesh Retail and Wholesale Industry.

The little study was done in individual level to find the scenario of retail and wholesale trade in micro level. But, so far, no in-depth research has been published to find the impact and magnitude of COVID-19 on cost, gross output, and gross value addition in wholesale and retail sector in Bangladesh. This study may be one of the first initiatives at this regard.  

 

3. Relevant Literature Review    

A literature review is an overview of the previously published works on the related topics. It may also include a discussion of methodological issues and suggestions for future research. The review of related literature gives the researcher an understanding of the research methodology, which refers to the way; the study is to be conducted. It helps the researcher to know about the tools and instruments which proved to be useful and promoting in the previous study. It also provides insight in to the statistical methods through which validity of result is to be established.

D’Acquisto et al. (2015) found that the indicate dynamics at play in network providers and content providers, pricing strategies when coping with various content kinds (free and pay-per-use). With the possibility for collusion in non-neutral circumstances that may not be in the best interests of consumers, the decisions made by these providers can have a variety of implications on their revenues and the retail prices that consumers can pay. Then, Kuzman et al. (2017) found that a thriving wholesale market is an indicator of national, regional, and city determination to meet the interests of lessors, buyers, consumers, and the city itself. The construction of wholesale markets represents a move toward modern infrastructure centers with a wide range of benefits for economic and other institutions.

 Next, Arci et al. (2018) to efficiently operate an electricity market, accurate short-term forecasts of wholesale electricity prices and demand are essential. These forecasts influence decisions related to unit commitment, security assessment, operational costs and system security. Then, Hassani & Dost (2020) the research underscores the multifaceted impact of covid-19 on the global economy, with significant repercussions for international trade, GDP growth, labor income, and China’s pivotal role in global trade. These findings highlight the interconnectedness of the global economy and the importance of understanding the ripple effects of a global crisis like the covid-19 pandemic.

Then, Hameli (2018), the retail sector serves as a bridge between producers and consumers, with retailers playing a crucial role in product distribution. Retailing has evolved over time, and it can be broadly categorized into in-store retailing and non-store retailing. In addition, to the classification methods mentioned above, the paper briefly touches on shopping malls, which are collections of retail businesses organized as a unit in planned and managed locations. Overall, the retail sector is a diverse and dynamic part of the economy, offering a wide range of business types and serving the needs of customers through various channels.

 After that, Alam (2020) mentioned that, retailing in Bangladesh is undergoing significant changes with the risk of supermarkets, e-commerce growth, and multichannel adoption. These Shifts align with established retail change theories, placing the country in the fourth wave of retail development. Given its economic significance, it is crucial for stakeholders and policymakers to closely monitor and adapt to these evolving trends for sustainable sector growth.

Therefore, Nithya & Chirputkar (2020), the research underscores the multifaceted impact of covid-19 on the global economy, with significant repercussions for international trade, GDP growth, labor income, and China pivotal role in global trade. These findings highlight the interconnectedness of the global economy and the importance of understanding the ripple effects of a global crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, Hoque et al. (2020) proposed a conceptual model for evaluating highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic has had profound and lasting consequences on the tourism sector in China, affecting not only domestic tourism but also international tourism and the broader economy. the study underscores the need for strategies to revive and adapt the tourism industry in the post-pandemic era.

After that, Okolo (2021) mentioned that the determinants of new firms entering the Swedish retail and wholesale trade markets. The findings suggest that incumbent firms engage in strategic behavior to hinder nor entrants. Factors such as high profits, absence of a single dominant incumbent, and regional characteristics play crucial roles in entry behavior. Interestingly, despite a recession, there’s a notable increase in the number of firms, suggesting they may be adapting to market changes through mechanisms like capital and labor investments.

After reviewed some related literatures, it is clear that the previous researchers have been tried to focus the situations of retail and wholesale trade in micro level, but this research has been tried to mentioned the same area in macro level based on authentic data and information.

 

4. Methodology of the Study

This section provides detail description of the data sources, study population, descriptive statistics, methods of economic investigation and methods of multivariate and 3SLS.

 

4.1.  Sources of Data

The secondary data of Wholesale and Retail Trade Survey 2021 need to be collected to achieve the objectives from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Here, those data are more organized and well decorated.

 

4.1.1.   Sample Design

The probability stratified random sampling procedures were used to draw the samples from the target population in the Wholesale and Retail Trade Survey 2021. The survey was conducted based on Economic Census 2013, Business Directory 2019 and Sample list frame. Stratification was done based on the persons employed and number by BSIC (Bangladesh Standard Industrial Classification) at 4-digit level. Based on Economic Census 2013, a list of wholesale and retail trade establishments was prepared and updated. The Business Directory 2019 comprised 10 or more total person engaged of all establishments in the country from where using only wholesale and retail trade establishments' part irrespective of manpower engaged.

 

4.1.2.  Study Population of BBS Data

The 2021 BBS survey is conducted as part of the study. The sample size was determined as 15,800 permanent wholesale and retail trade establishments for the final survey.

 

4.1.3.  Study Population and Sample Size of the Study

Primarily in BBS 2021 data, study population consists of 15800. This study found that some variables consist of missing cases. After removing all missing cases of selected variables, the study population consists of 15258 samples.

 

4.2. Descriptive Statistics

The state of wholesale and retail commerce in Bangladesh has been assessed using descriptive statistics. In this study, mean, standard deviation, standard error, and coefficient of variation were employed. Tabular presentations (frequency, percentage), graphical presentations (pie chart, bar chart), and these measurements were also used to express the people of establishment. For exploring the current scenario arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, standard error are used.

 

4.3. Methods of Economic Investigation

4.3.1.  Cost

The cost of something is the amount of money that is needed in order to buy, do, or make it. Cost has been calculated by using formula. Such as, TC (total cost) = TFC (total fixed cost) + TVC (total variable cost).

 

4.3.2.   Gross Output

Gross output is the measure of total economic activity in the production of new goods and services in an accounting period. It can be measured by formula. Gross value of output=Value of the total sales of goods and services + Value of changes in the inventories. The sum of net value added in various economic activities is known as GDP at factor cost.

 

4.3.3.  Gross Value Added

GVA is the output of the country less the intermediate consumption, which is the difference between gross output and net output. To calculate the Gross Value Added we can use formula: 

GVA=GDP+SP−TP. Here, SP= Subsidies on Products and TP= Taxes on Products.

 

 

 

4.4. Computational Software and Paper Writing 

This research paper is written by using Microsoft Word-13. In this study, the entire analysis is done by using STATA and Excel-13 is used for analysis. This software’s are used to construct frequency table and bivariate analysis.

 

5. Results and Discussions

5.1. Profile of the samples

Wholesale and Retail trade has a direct effect on economics. Table 1 summarizes the frequency distribution of the type of sample business and also indicates that the 26.37% establishments are engaged in wholesale business, 63.96% establishments are engaged with retail and 9.67% are engaged with sale and repair of motor car and motor cycles.

Table 1

Table 1 Frequency Distribution on Different Types of Establishments
Type of Business	Number of Establishments
	Number	(%)
Wholesale	4,023	26.37
Retail	9,759	63.96
Sale and Repair of Motor Car and Motor Cycle	1,475	9.67
Total	15,257	100
Source Field Survey

 

Figure 1

Figure 1 Distribution of the Types of Establishments in Percentage

 

From Table 2, it is found that 0.33% ownership is governmental, while 99.25% ownership is private and 0.1% is private ownership. This study found that 0.24% is local and foreign type, 0.09% belongs to fully foreign.

Table 2

Table 2 Frequency Distribution on Types of Ownership
Types of ownership	Number	(%)
Government	50	0.33
Private	15144	99.25
Private ownership	15	0.1
Local and Foreign	36	0.24
Fully Foreign	13	0.09
Total	15258	100
Source Field Investigation

 

In Table 3, the individual establishment reported that individual highest percentages 92.69% had risk of COVID-19 and 7.31% had no risk of COVID-19.

Table 3

Table 3 Frequency Distribution on the Perception About COVID-19
Perception about COVID-19	Number	(%)
No Risk	1,116	7.31
Risk	14,142	92.69
Total	15,258	100
Source Field Investigation

 

Table 4 presents that, in February 2020, 15,159 out of 15,258 establishments were operational at the start of the corona crisis. Gradually, when the impact of covid-19 increased in March and April, most of the establishments closed due to the lockdown.

Table 4

Table 4 Frequency Distribution on Opened and Closed Establishments During COVID-19
Months	opened and closed establishments
		Number	(%)
February	Closed	99	0.65
	Opened	15159	99.35
March	Closed	591	3.87
	Opened	14667	96.13
April	Closed	11068	72.54
	Opened	4190	27.46
May	Closed	10928	71.62
	Opened	4330	28.38
June	Closed	3887	25.21
	Opened	11411	74.79
Source Field Survey

 

In March 14,667 establishments remained open but in April 4190 remained open and 11,068 establishments were almost closed. The number of establishments closed in May stood 10928 and only 411 were opened. In June, the lockdown began to relax slightly and institutions gradually opened. In June, the number of open establishments is 11,411 and 3,847 establishments remain closed. In short, the wholesale and retail business are facing the problem of solvability to the effect of COVID-19.

 

 

 

Figure 2

           

Figure 2 Distribution of Opened and Closed Establishments in Percentage

 

5.2.  Scenario analysis of wholesale and retail trade

Table 5 indicates that mean of sectors of operating expenses are found highest for rent expenditure (328502.5) and lowest for capital expenditure (7347.662). Here, the higher the coefficient of variation is for rent expenditure (20.12), the lowest coefficient of variation is for communication expenditure (7.52). The lowest coefficient of variation (7.52) means, the expenditure is running with more stability and consistency. From the table we can comment that the higher the coefficient of variation, the greater the level of dispersion around the mean.

Table 5

Table 5 Scenario Analysis on Sectors of Operating Expenses
Sectors of operating Expenses	Mean	Variance (in million)	Standard deviation	Correlation of var.	Standard Error
Rent expenditure	328502.5	4370000	6609904	20.12132	53511.41
Capital expenditure	7347.662	1630	127835	17.39805	1034.906
Transport expenditure	87725.38	54100	735713.9	8.386557	5956.075
Repair expenditure	27932.78	7720	277763.7	9.944004	2248.675
Communication expenditure	8995.382	458	67667.38	7.522458	547.8108
Fuel expenditure	98423.34	112000	1057606	10.74548	8561.995

 

Table 6

Table 6 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by Capital Lack
Type of business	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	Gross value added	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	8.08x107 1.71 x109 3.69 x107 21.18802	7607791 1.19 x108 2560451 15.62362	7.32 x108 1.69 x109 3.65 x107 23.13348	315031.4 2502681 53911.55 7.944226	7292759 1.19 x108 2557433 16.27931	10.67749 25.53923 0.5501538 2.391874	1995291 1.54 x108 331940.4 7.722845
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	2.58 x108 1.10 x108 1646004 4.280977	4251753 3.35 x107 499110.7 7.87647	2.15 x108 9.80 x107 1460679 4.548624	372088.9 3606783 53754.8 9.693337	3879664 3.28 x107 489340.9 8.462918	7.471568 36.91094 0.5501135 4.940186	958586.5 4016697 59864.09 4.190229
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	3.26 x107 9.75 x107 3743849 2.989319	6154287 6.96 x107 2674676 11.3164	2.65 x107 6.17 x107 2370810 2.333349	162065.4 1289215 49512.02 7.954907	5992221 6.96 x107 2672257 11.61195	6.743363 13.25354 0.5089992 1.96542	942697.2 3240305 124443.2 3.43727
Total	Mean SD SE CV	4.26 x107 9.33 x108 1.09 x107 21.90242	5413604 7.27 x107 849050.8 13.4322	3.72 x108 9.22 x108 1.08 x107 24.78767	335912.4 3159192 36887.22 9.404809	5077692 7.25 x107 846062.1 14.27039	8.346149 32.34539 0.3776699 3.875487	1261698 8990729 104977.2 7.125893
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 6 we found that, when there is lack of capital in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in wholesale business. From the Table 6 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in retail business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

In conclusion, these statistics give an overview of the characteristics and financial performance of various business kinds depending on their capital resources. Retail businesses have more flexibility in expenses, while wholesale enterprises often have more output and value added. Businesses that are involved in sales and repairs fall between these two groups, and the aggregate average values offer a complete picture of these companies as a whole. Business analysts, politicians, and investors that want to comprehend the economic environment of various sectors can benefit from these.

Table 7

Table 7 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by no Lack of Customer
Type of business	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	Gross value added	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	3.64x107 1.11x107 26827063.056493	4880314 3.20x107 771887 6.56521	3.16x107 9.57x107 2305642 3.033202	247543.7 2347810 56561.42 9.484427	4632770 3.17x107 764493.5 6.849764	11.46489 32.00128 0.770947 2.791242	2181947 1.69x107 406475.2 7.732723
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	2.18x107 1.12x107 1884668 5.148547	2372245 4.80 x107 807533.5 20.24217	1.94 x107 1.08 x107 1819942 5.579827	208345.7 2172284 36530.91 10.42635	2163900 4.78 x107 804262 22.10124	30.03874 1412.925 23.76091 47.03675	792637.1 4070936 68460.21 5.13594
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.55x107 4.56 x107 1842550 2.939387	1916994 8339587 337107.8 4.350347	1.36x107 4.14 x107 1672345 3.044177	133377.5 1346024 54409.8 10.09184	1783616 7991267 323027.8 4.480374	5.28268 13.1195 0.530324 2.483493	699236.1 3287579 132892.5 4.701672
Total	Mean SD SE CV	2.54x107 1.07 x107 1397831 4.213625	3060848 4.12 x107 537855.1 13.46417	2.24 x107 9.98 x107 1302248 4.462909	212034.6 2156013 28138.14 10.16821	2848814 4.10 x107 535057.7 14.39105	22.00715 1096.656 14.31246 49.8318	1190631 9748138 127223 8.187373
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 7 we found that, when there is no lack of customer in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business. From the Table 7 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of total employee is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 8

Table 8 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by Lack of Customer
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	Gross value added	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	6.31x107 1.66x109 3.45x 107 26.23019	4484013 1.12x108 2332999 24.95236	5.87x107 1.64x107 3.42x107 27.93476	164385.8 2053710 42822.82 12.49323	4319627 1.12x108 2330423 25.87333	6.24 12.88588 0.268689 2.065045	882453.5 3858479 80454.86 4.372445
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.43x107 7.17x107 909278.6 5.011945	2192087 1.91x107 242688.9 8.733575	1.21x107 6.27x107 795284 5.176476	194191.3 3073046 38955.54 15.82484	1997896 1.84x107 232651.1 9.186122	4.821469 20.95374 0.265621 4.345925	579239 2825601 35818.79 4.878126
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	2.25x107 8.39 x107 2855514 3.734094	4367319 6.16 x107 2096953 14.1052	1.81x107 5.06x107 1721367 2.794205	116143.2 1800556 61291.62 15.50289	4251176 6.15x107 2094877 14.47621	4.67555 6.249933 0.21275 1.336727	544809.1 1171198 39868.03 2.149739
Total	Mean SD SE CV	2.70x107 8.22 x107 8489156 30.43085	2953717 6.05 x107 624395.4 20.48005	2.41 x107 8.13 x107 8391439 33.77143	179711.4 2755431 28441.28 15.33253	2774005 6.03 x107 622078.8 21.72593	5.155657 18.32296 0.189128 3.553953	650374.7 3013929 31109.48 4.634142
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

Table 8 shows, when there is lack of customer in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in wholesale business. Highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in retail business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is also in retail business.

Table 9

Table 9 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by no Economic Downward
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	Gross value added	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	2.88 x107 8.61 x107 1819308 2.98755	3085194 2.39 x107 504493.8 7.740952	2.57 x107 7.66 x107 1618934 2.977125	165466 1979386 41812.83 11.96249	2919728 2.35 x107 497121.5 8.060113	8.441321 21.42644 0.452615 2.53828	1501238 1.44x107 304469.8 9.600984
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.57x107 9.41x107 1180133 5.98468	1953950 2.01 x107 252164.6 10.28551	1.38 x107 8.68 x107 1089243 6.308019	117909.9 2043813 25644.01 17.33369	1836040 1.97 x107 246652.9 10.70679	4.824937 20.86329 0.261775 4.324054	573995.2 3002242 37669.55 5.230431
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.73x107 4.39 x107 1468792 2.536068	1699848 6551317 219231.5 3.85406	1.56 x107 3.96 x107 1324901 2.536774	157425.8 2059180 68907.83 13.08032	1542422 5937159 198679.5 3.849243	4.855543 11.35744 0.380062 2.339067	628950.3 2820951 94399.53 4.485174
Total	Mean SD SE CV	1.90x107 8.88 x107 911813.3 4.683065	2197277 2.02 x107 207754.1 9.208867	1.68 x107 8.13 x107 834498.6 4.847673	132864.7 2030139 20844.15 15.27975	2064413 1.98 x107 203566.6 9.603986	5.682163 20.35585 0.209001 3.582411	798223 7483201 76832.66 9.374825
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 9 we found that, when there is no economic downward in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business. From the Table 9 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 10

Table 10 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Businessby Economic Downward
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	8.05x107 1.88 x109 4.46 x107 23.38951	6626315 1.28 x108 3036254 19.34282	7.38 x107 1.86 x109 4.41x107 25.2136	243432 2418010 57280.17 9.933004	6382883 1.28 x108 3033155 20.06003	8.523569 25.34131 0.60031 2.973087	1360755 5839781 138338.4 4.291575
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.94x107 7.72x107 1323354 3.975221	2823049 4.81 x107 823263.4 17.02184	1.66 x107 7.30 x107 1249907 4.392798	351100.4 3784795 64841.98 10.77981	2471949 4.76 x107 815957.3 19.267	30.98709 1439.421 24.6605 46.4523	810493.6 3869367 66290.89 4.774087
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	2.31x107 9.84 x107 4077695 4.265474	5883560 7.50 x107 3110362 12.75358	1.72 5.66 x107 2344223 3.292006	70923.32 448356.3 18584.97 6.321705	5812637 7.50 x107 3108776 12.90261	5.037801 6.413353 0.265842 1.273046	578093.2 1094113 45352.44 1.892624
Total	Mean SD SE CV	3.86 x107 1.05 x109 1.38 x107 27.12333	4306091 8.37x107 1101658 19.43521	3.43 x107 1.04 x109 1.36 x107 30.18139	289598.4 3207559 42223 11.07589	4016493 8.35 x107 1098921 20.78477	21.43372 1106.068 14.55983 51.6041	956968.8 4422936 58221.73 4.621819
Sum. Stat.   Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 10 we found that, when there remains effect of economic downward in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business. Table 10 table we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 11

Table 11 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by No Transportation Problem
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	5.14x107 1.28 x109 2.06 x107 24.93897	4715695 8.90 x107 1434729 18.88284	4.67 x107 1.27 x109 2.04 x107 27.15563	204183.1 2231862 35960.38 10.93069	4511512 8.89 x107 1432446 19.70604	8.224818 22.04968 0.355271 2.680871	1242734 4920874 79286.48 3.959716
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.67x107 8.85 x107 911099 5.296839	2289696 3.32 x107 341986.6 14.51321	1.44 x107 8.21 x107 844766.3 5.690799	204677.1 2826397 29087.15 13.80906	2085019 3.28 x107 337855 15.74535	14.23893 864.8308 8.900188 60.73705	656466.7 3365586 34636.07 5.126819
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.92 x107 7.12 x107 1891181 3.702204	3419633 4.84 x107 1284304 14.14251	1.58 x107 4.68 x107 1243235 2.959984	126341.9 1659092 44058.77 13.13177	3293291 4.83 x107 1282387 14.66315	4.917489 9.849443 0.261561 2.002941	608806.8 2338385 62098.04 3.840931
Total	Mean SD SE CV	2.60 x107 6.60 x108 5441636 25.35182	3033796 5.49 x107 452378.6 18.08638	2.30 x107 6.52 x107 5375931 28.34919	196997.5 2587737 21334.59 13.13589	2836798 5.46 x107 450550.4 19.26419	11.76584 692.9249 5.712817 58.89295	805373.8 3768692 31070.97 4.679433
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 11 we found that, when there is no transportation problem in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business. From the Table 11 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 12

Table 12 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by Transportation Problem
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	5.88 x107 1.50 x108 1.15x107 2.556523	3258207 8677764 663605.2 2.663356	5.56 x107 1.47 x108 1.12 x107 2.636529	105799.2 256376.3 19605.58 2.423234	3152407 8623515 659456.7 2.735533	14.17544 41.58554 3.180126 2.933634	5860388 5.03 x107 3843169 8.575535
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	2.59x107 8.92 x107 5009808 3.440956	1294362 4325670 242953.8 3.341932	2.46 x107 8.65 x107 4857733 3.511861	39753.9 192384.2 10805.37 4.839381	1254608 4255624 239019.6 3.391994	5.605678 10.63724 0.597447 1.897584	659339 2122319 119201.3 3.218858
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	2.81x107 5.38x107 7121832 1.913922	1634323 4923896 652186 3.012805	2.65 x107 5.10 x107 6751002 1.926328	47470.96 130396.4 17271.42 2.746866	1586852 4890036 647701.1 3.081595	5.175439 5.175915 0.685567 1.000092	610786 911471.6 120727.4 1.492293
Total	Mean SD SE CV	3.65 x107 1.11 x108 4734861 3.030417	1946096 6139720 262996.7 3.15489	3.45 x107 1.07 x108 4598613 3.109096	61283.48 211430.9 9056.704 3.450047	1884813 6080002 260438.7 3.225786	8.249541 25.00022 1.070892 3.030499	2286150 2.82 x107 1209916 12.35517
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 12 we found that, when there remains transportation problem in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business. From the Table 12 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 13

Table 13 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by no High Wages
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	5.20x107 1.2 x107 2.05 x107 24.50817	4686897 8.86 x107 1420693 18.90556	4.74 x107 1.26 x107 2.02 x107 26.6362	204006.9 2221067 35611.22 10.88721	4482890 8.85 x107 1418432 19.73446	8.235219 23.02917 0.369236 2.796424	1355533 1.15 x107 183921.9 8.462487
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.66 x107 8.83 x107 906797.4 5.30672	2227942 3.31 x107 339507 14.84492	1.44 x107 8.21 x107 842347 5.691267	199016.7 2809569 28840.75 14.11725	2028925 3.27 x107 335493.2 16.10834	14.01739 862.6284 8.855043 61.53989	623901.5 3249151 33353.14 5.207795
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.98 x107 7.16 x107 1903631 3.622508	3441094 4.84 x107 1286904 14.06786	1.63 x107 4.74 x107 1259145 2.901106	122143.2 1647751 43803.96 13.49032	3318951 4.83 x107 1285095 14.56507	4.896113 9.850284 0.261861 2.011858	599790 2307899 61353.39 3.847845
Total	Mean SD SE CV	2.63 x107 6.58 x108 5412339 25.07767	2990493 5.47 x107 449603.5 18.28708	2.33 x107 6.50 x108 5347070 27.9604	192976.6 2572921 21152.85 13.33281	2797517 5.45 x107 447819.8 19.47099	11.62474 690.9774 5.680759 59.44025	813961 6478933 53265.5 7.959758
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 13 we found that, when there are no high wages in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in wholesale business. From the Table 13 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of total employee is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 14

Table 14 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by High Wages
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	4.17x107 9.53 x107 8263284 2.284413	3684071 1.02 x107 887895.7 2.779456	3.80 x107 9.14 x107 7927653 2.403924	82843.31 254176.8 22039.92 3.068163	3601227 1.02 x107 882979.2 2.827651	15.57143 27.89001 2.418371 1.791102	3880551 1.01 x107 878198.5 2.609908
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	3.00 x107 9.55 x107 5822099 3.187776	3295344 1.39 x107 847786.2 4.219507	2.67 x107 8.80 x107 5365771 3.301074	210014.2 1414882 86266.87 6.737078	3085330 1.30 x107 791144.7 4.205624	11.88104 31.02251 1.891476 2.611094	1808713 5402019 329366.9 2.986664
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.51 x107 4.13 x107 5336295 2.735234	1217479 5652885 729784.3 4.643108	1.39 x107 3.79 x107 4894852 2.728806	150433.3 1029522 132910.7 6.843707	1067045 4640672 599108.2 4.349086	5.666667 5.426447 0.700551 0.957608	823331.7 2100606 271187.1 2.551349
Total	Mean SD SE CV	3.14 x107 9.05 x107 4209427 2.880274	3137398 1.21 x107 564250.5 3.865657	2.83 x107 8.45 x107 3930056 2.987494	165666.6 1149389 53474.42 6.937965	2971731 1.14 x107 532335.8 3.850323	12.13636 28.19341 1.311676 2.323053	2277180 6931427 322479.2 3.043864
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 14 we found that, when there remains effect of high wages in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business. From the Table 14 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is in sale and repair business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in retail business and the highest value of CV is in sales and repair. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in sale and repair business. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in sale and repair business and highest correlation of variation is also in retail business.

 

 

 

Table 15

Table 15 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by No Effect of Corona
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	2.97x107 8.20 x107 4881458 2.761804	3140808 9923407 590930.3 3.159508	2.65 x107 7.55 x107 4493402 2.843104	122977.7 710876.6 42332.09 5.780533	3017830 9764495 581467.2 3.235601	8.858156 14.12732 0.84127 1.594838	2396959 1.13 x107 671248.7 4.702702
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.26 x107 6.73 x107 2418599 5.325151	-990292 8.11 x107 2914566 -81.9335	1.36 x107 1.00 x108 3592015 7.334288	35513.53 234770.6 8433.209 6.610737	-1025805 8.11x107 2913618 -79.0712	4.627097 12.03254 0.432222 2.600451	676021.6 2919268 104863.2 4.318306
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.19 x107 4.53 x107 5898183 3.820954	1341158 4735443 616502.2 3.530861	1.05 x107 4.07 x107 5297315 3.869372	72157.2 416971.4 54285.05 5.778652	1269001 4335310 564409.2 3.416316	4.932203 6.485699 0.844366 1.31497	653473.3 1872010 243714.9 2.864707
Total	Mean SD SE CV	1.69 x107 7.07 x107 2117196 4.183261	176845.9 6.78 x107 2030065 383.4838	1.67 x107 9.22 x107 2759060 5.509112	59551.95 419629 12561.27 7.046436	117293.9 6.78 x107 2029163 577.9277	5.712366 12.50373 0.374289 2.188888	1109690 6219393 186172.7 5.604623
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 15 we found that, when there is no risk of corona in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is(2.97 ) in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in retail business(5.32).From the Table 15 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale  and the highest CV is in sale and repair. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in wholesale business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in sale and repair. The highest mean value of total employee is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.

Table 16

Table 16 Scenario Analysis on the Types of Business by Effect of Corona
Business type	Sum. Stat. a	Gross output	G VA	Cost	Non industrial cost	Value added fixed cost	Total employee	Wages and salaries
Wholesale	Mean SD SE CV	5.34x107 1.30 x109 2.13 x107 24.3725	4767790 9.03 x107 1476937 18.94692	4.86 1.29 x109 2.10 x107 26.46853	205807.4 2256991 36900.82 10.96652	4561983 9.02 x107 1474604 19.7704	8.449078 23.78589 0.388889 2.815205	1366799 1.14 x107 187164.2 8.375524
Retail	Mean SD SE CV	1.74 x107 9.02 x107 951155.6 5.184253	2537522 2.44 x107 256927.7 9.597012	1.49 x107 8.05 x107 849718.1 5.422631	213450.5 2896685 30560.91 13.57075	2324071 2.38 x107 250913.7 10.23316	14.76347 886.5956 9.353856 60.05334	654881.1 3365829 35510.54 5.139603
Sale and Repair	Mean SD SE CV	1.99 x107 7.15 x107 1899574 3.592018	3434370 4.84 x107 1286116 14.09174	1.65 x107 4.73 x107 1255700 2.869746	125424.7 1658358 44070.37 13.22194	3308945 4.83 x107 1284233 14.60447	4.92726 9.822794 0.261038 1.993561	607025.3 2316230 61553.12 3.815706
Total	Mean SD SE CV	2.72 x107 6.73 x108 5661821 24.79158	3217344 5.26 x107 442627.2 16.3599	2.39 x107 6.65 x108 5591589 27.77447	202614.1 2637009 22175.41 13.01493	3014730 5.24 x107 440632 17.38071	12.10805 706.7837 5.943558 58.37302	838427 6518952 54819.84 7.775217
Sum. Stat.  Summary Statistics

 

From the Table 16 we found that, when there has risk of corona in Wholesale, Retail and Sales and Repair the highest mean value of Gross Output is in Wholesale business and the highest Correlation of Variation is in wholesale business. From the Table 16 we also found that, the highest mean value of Gross value added is in Wholesale and the highest CV is also in wholesale business. The highest mean value of cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of non-industrial cost is in retail business and the highest value of CV is in retail business. The highest mean value of value-added fixed cost is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is in wholesale business. The highest mean value of total employee is in retail business and highest correlation of variation is in retail business. The highest mean value of wages and salaries is in wholesale business and highest correlation of variation is also in wholesale business.  

 

6. Overall Findings of the Study

The findings of the study have been used for designing interventions that can improve the well-being of wholesale and retail workers, improve labor productivity, and aid in sectorial growth.  This study has been conducted to investigate the scenario of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh. Another objective of this study is to minimize the adverse impact on our wholesale and retail business if an epidemic occurs. In this study the secondary BBS data have been used. 15,258 of sample data have been used from the wholesale and retail survey 2021.the analysis has been carried out using the following variables: location of the business, type of the business, classification of the organization ownership, institutional information, Number of people employed, working hours, wages, operating expenses, gross value added, gross output. Descriptive statistics has been used to examine the current status of input cost, gross value added, gross output of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh by using tabular presentation (frequency, percentage), graphical presentation (bar diagram, pie chart), arithmetic mean, standard deviation, standard error, coefficient of variation. In conclusion, these summary statistics in Univariate analysis give an overview of the characteristics and financial performance of various business kinds depending on their capital resources. Retail businesses have more flexibility in expenses, while wholesale enterprises often have more output and value added. Businesses that are involved in sales and repairs fall between these two groups, and the aggregate average values offer a complete picture of these companies as a whole. Business analysts, politicians, and investors that want to comprehend the economic environment of various sectors can benefit from these insights.

Overall, from the analysis of the study it is suggested that industrial cost, non-industrial cost, and total wages have statistically significant and positive associations with gross output, while total employment and the variable "corona" do not appear to be strongly associated with gross output based on the results and p-values. These findings are important for understanding the factors that influence gross output in the research context.

In this analysis, we aimed to assess the influence of several independent variables on two key economic indicators: gross output and cost. The independent variables considered included industrial cost, non-industrial cost, total employment, total wages, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (referred to as "corona"). We also examined the effects of a set of factors including a lack of capital, a lack of customers, economic downward, market problems, high wages, transportation problems, and logistic deficiencies on the cost.

The study found that pandemic period, industrial and nonindustrial cost, labour wage has a significant influence on gross output. Finally, a significant dependency of gross output has been detected on gross value addition whereas the total scenarios are affected by COVID -19 in Bangladesh.

 

7. Conclusion

Based on the findings of this study, there is need to provide information on wholesalers and retailers with basic life skills. Also, Government should support for economic well-being to overcome any epidemics by ensuring that youth are fully informed about wholesale and retail trade and related risks. As a result, the objective has been achieved.

 

8. Limitations and Further Research Direction

This study is the first initiative to diagnosis the scenario of retail and wholesale trade and impact of COVID -19 on gross output and gross value addition using national level big data set. Since there have no baseline survey before COVID- 19 at national level, the exact effect of pandemic on gross output and gross value added are unseen. But it is need to search the related document of other national survey before pandemic to compare and measure the scenario of retail and wholesale trade and effect of COVID -19 on gross output and gross value added. This study only considered the formal establishment of wholesale and retail trade in Bangladesh. But, still a large number of informal establishments need to be added to make final decision and policy option to represent the status of retail and wholesale trade and to recover the effect of COVID -19 on gross output and gross value addition of wholesale a retail trade in Bangladesh.

 

CONFLICT OF INTERESTS

None. 

 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

None.

 

 

 

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