IJETMR
ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSTICATION OF BANKRUPTCY AMONG BSE (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE INDIA) LISTED COMPANIES

ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSTICATION OF BANKRUPTCY AMONG BSE (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE INDIA) LISTED COMPANIES

 

Dr. M. Ravichandran 1 Icon

Description automatically generated, R. Senthoorya 2 Icon

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1 Assistant professor, Department of Management studies, University College of Engineering, BIT Campus, Anna university Tiruchirappalli

2 PG student, Department of Management studies, Department of Management studies, University College of Engineering, BIT Campus Anna university Tiruchirappalli

 

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ABSTRACT

When a company faces difficulty in maintaining stability in financial performance of the company, there is a vast chances of bankruptcy occurrence. There are two possible ways when the company cannot financially survive, one is debt restructuring and another one is proceeding for bankruptcy. The objective of the research is to predict the sample companies which have the chance of bankruptcy or not. The research design and sampling method for this project is descriptive research and non-probability sampling method. Using Sample size of 186 Non-Banking Financial companies’ secondary data that is five years financial report, the Altman Z score analysis (Multi Discriminant Analysis) was conducted with a help of Microsoft office Excel 2021. Based on the analysis results, 11 out of 186 companies were in unsafe zone in 2021. Similarly, 14 out of 186 companies were in unsafe zone in 2020, and 8 out of 186 companies were in unsafe zone in 2019.

 

Received 05 July 2022

Accepted 03 August 2022

Published 26 August 2022

Corresponding Author

R. Senthoorya, senthoorya.r@gmail.com

DOI 10.29121/ijetmr.v9.i8.2022.1180  

Funding: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

With the license CC-BY, authors retain the copyright, allowing anyone to download, reuse, re-print, modify, distribute, and/or copy their contribution. The work must be properly attributed to its author.

 

Keywords: Bankruptcy, Safe zone, Distress zone, Gray zone, Non-Banking Financial Companies

 

 

 


1. INTRODUCTION

When a company faces difficulty in maintaining stability in financial performance of the company, there is a vast chances of bankruptcy occurrence. There are two possible ways when the company cannot financially survive, one is debt restructuring and another one is proceeding for bankruptcy. However, the Insolvency is described in the code as “a situation where individuals or organizations are unable to meet their financial obligations.” Bankruptcy also called as financial distress or default. Monitoring, analysing, predicting financial distress are the crucial process for those who might get affected if there is a possibility of financial distress in the particular company.  Mulyadi (2020)

A Non-Banking Financial Company is a company that is registered under the Companies Act, 2013 of India, engaged in the business of chit-fund business or hire-purchase insurance business, acquisition of shares, stock, bonds, loans and advances but does not include any institution whose principal business is that of industrial activity, agriculture, purchase or sale of any goods (other than securities) or providing any services and purchase/construction/sale of immovable property. The working and operations of Non-Banking Financial Companies are regulated by the Reserve Bank of India within the framework of the RBI Act, 1934 As banks are not able to reach each and every corner of financial business need in the country, NBFC plays a very important role in financial sector of Indian economy. Kaur (2017)

BSE Limited, also known as the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), is an Indian stock exchange, established in 1875, it is the oldest stock exchange in Asia, and also the tenth oldest in the world.  Based on the documents there are around 45779 companies were listed under Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financial services, Energy, Commodities, Healthcare, Fast moving consumer goods, Services, Telecommunication, Information technology, Diversified and utilities sectors. About 11313 companies are currently active.

 

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The research design and sampling method for this project is Descriptive research and non-probability sampling method. Using Sample size of 186 Non-Banking Financial companies’ secondary data that is five years financial report collected from Bombay stock exchange, Money control website, company’s own website and Groww website, the Altman Z score analysis was conducted with a help of Microsoft office Excel 2021. Hillegeist et al. (2004) Altman Z-Score method is a Multiple Discriminant Analysis model, used to predict financial distress of the business using financial ratios and statistical method.

Altman Z score:

Altman Z-Score = 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + 1.0E

Where:

·       A = working capital / total assets                               

·       B = retained earnings / total assets

·       C = earnings before interest and tax /                         

·       D = market value of equity / total assets total liabilities                      

·       E= sales / total assets                                                                                                              

 

The boundaries established by Altman are as follows.

1)     Z score > 2.99 – Safe zone

2)     1.80 < Z score < 2.99 Grey zone

3)     Z score < 1.80 Distress zone

 

 

 

 

 

3. ANALYSIS

Table 1

Table 1

S. No

ISIN No

Issuer Name

Mar-21

Mar-20

Mar-19

1

INE442C01012

Charms Industries Ltd

0.667592

570.322

642.3709

2

INE348I01018

Bervin Investments and Leasing Ltd.

18.10918

14.02308

13.10497

3

INE373D01017

Gujarat Investa Ltd.,

29.59351

10.99885

6.186993

4

INE671D01014

Hasti Finance Ltd.

11.94035

13.44605

5.886223

5

INE890B01014

Upsurge Investment and Finance Ltd.

92.6216

104.3791

133.757

6

INE804B01023

Mega Corporation Ltd

7.203946

7.750102

7.399371

7

INE07P301011

Systematix Securities Ltd.

14.28259

12.24536

11.48737

8

INE271D01013

Sungold Capital Ltd.

9.469555

12.70911

14.85631

9

INE628F01019

Indergiri Finance Ltd.

21.68647

19.80895

19.39957

10

INE623D01015

Step Two Corporation Ltd.

22.28939

35.4195

56.85329

11

INE508J01015

Beryl Securities Ltd

17.69603

17.27305

13.99763

12

INE483D01014

Rap Media Ltd.

1.974841

9.367961

10.15723

13

INE802A01037

Bampsl Securities Ltd.

27.07469

8.233069

40.15767

14

INE180C01026

Capri Global Capital Limited

14.81991

18.00899

15.52537

15

INE546D01018

Tokyo Finance Ltd.

11.12879

7.244969

9.207209

16

INE528C01018

Thirdwave Financial Intermediaries

429.3252

417.3074

328.7369

17

INE224C01014

Inani Securities Ltd.

11.49723

10.35422

9.146446

18

INE621B01021

Prithvi Exchange (India) Limited

15.98967

33.91129

32.51009

19

INE429Q01019

Prism Finance Ltd.

38.932

6.18447

5.513532

20

INE703D01023

Biogen Pharmachem Industries Limited

76.52244

20.84751

4.224798

21

INE131D01019

G.K. Consultants Ltd.

56.23948

142.4003

175.5167

22

INE348D01019

Munoth Financial Services Ltd.

8.170824

13.35664

12.313

23

INE935D01013

Indus Finance Limited

2.151741

1.599393

5.59675

24

INE884X01011

Trinity League India Limited

24.43641

9.760101

26.06592

25

INE283D01018

Anjani Finance Ltd

30.2502

6.026561

7.422695

26

INE316D01024

Vertex Securities Ltd.

18.84566

20.20569

21.4885

27

INE914B01012

Shree Metalloys Limited

449.2765

555.216

280.3957

28

INE839E01023

Odyssey Corporation Ltd.

33.68565

5.412968

29.05402

29

INE056J01015

R. B. Gupta Financials Ltd.

20.76683

9.924449

18.38176

30

INE516F01016

Abhinav Capital Services Limited

86.75151

15.09259

11.72289

31

INE807D01030

Sagar Productions Limited

57.03828

424.5914

129.9383

32

INE957E01031

Brijlaxmi Leasing & Finance Ltd.

8.196914

8.321991

9.859667

33

INE440E01012

SMC Credits Ltd.

2.202153

3.275501

2.147009

34

INE514C01018

Minolta Finance Ltd.

4.786126

8.343164

6.471913

35

INE550B01022

Hb Stockholdings Ltd.

26.81344

8.701928

-5.70179

36

INE027F01014

Siel Financial Services Ltd.

-54.6206

-37.1613

-28.0253

37

INE023A01030

Nalwa Sons Investment Ltd

4.102688

5.290093

3.805261

38

INE389D01013

Tcfc Finance Ltd

7.870062

11.2074

18.39452

39

INE602C01011

Kjmc Corporate Advisors (India) Ltd.

9.589424

13.15246

17.32787

40

INE418B01048

Vaarad Ventures Ltd

9.372953

2.331371

4.034902

41

INE638B01025

Hb Portfolio Ltd.

17.02673

12.63316

12.34205

42

INE330E01023

Transcorp International Ltd.

1782.534

759.4372

2076.666

43

INE525F01017

Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd.

1.849489

1.784412

2.09651

44

INE722A01011

Shriram-City Union Finance Ltd.

17.65775

20.09368

20.75736

45

INE530B01024

Iifl Finance Limited

15.45576

14.82526

16.36828

46

INE774D01024

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited

15.42444

15.71643

15.39822

47

INE347H01012

Inditrade Capital Limited

36.64567

30.10774

17.972

48

INE804H01012

Transwarranty Finance Limited

0.066039

-0.24891

25.34266

49

INE420C01042

Paisalo Digital Limited

16.78606

18.23336

18.28538

50

INE274G01010

Dhani Services Limited

14.31766

26.34348

14.3774

51

INE083K01017

Bengal & Assam Company Limited

72.33995

70.66231

88.02203

52

INE143K01019

Essar Securities Limited

27.53337

-13.9345

39.00643

53

INE519C01017

Summit Securities Ltd.

3.726189

7.029712

115.5454

54

INE560K01014

Ptc India Financial Services Limited

10.54893

12.45094

10.82415

55

INE414G01012

Muthoot Finance Limited

18.6426

19.22851

19.98691

56

INE726L01019

Delphi World Money Limited

25.58502

423.8864

2283.278

57

INE912L01015

Onelife Capital Advisors Ltd

8.089184

10.10869

10.07705

58

INE793G01035

Pmc Fincorp Limited

11.80573

13.86002

11.46089

59

INE241F01011

Futuristic Solutions Ltd.

7.842784

8.269329

26.70801

60

INE883L01018

Pyxis Finvest Limited

6.169787

14.97601

18.71038

61

INE456N01019

Comfort Commotrade Limited

194.4005

163.1343

328.9663

62

INE176N01021

Caspian Corporate Services Limited

193.1759

9.161044

473.3082

63

INE234G01022

Trio Mercantile & Trading Limited

5.544746

72.5288

96.1825

64

INE274M01018

Comfort Fincap Limited

16.61454

11.48047

14.39416

65

INE902D01013

Kifs Financial Services Ltd

11.45441

8.322674

7.244653

66

INE474O01010

India Finsec Limited

15.77517

20.14727

12.6283

67

INE340O01013

Money Masters Leasing & Finance Limited

9.382278

11.29119

12.49949

68

INE030P01017

Alacrity Securities Limited

4.626877

4.381049

145.2187

69

INE200P01016

Gcm Commodity & Derivatives Limited

1.062758

1.33274

0.809931

70

INE326P01019

S R G Securities Finance Limited

22.18327

21.35103

18.33818

71

INE218P01018

Amrapali Capital And Finance Services Limited

199.5969

47.45671

2903.521

72

INE325P01011

Stellar Capital Services Limited

2.691973

2.673616

14.15503

73

INE947C01010

B. P. Capital Ltd.

-0.30084

-0.14783

0.560864

74

INE555P01013

Kiran Vyapar Limited

14.95294

9.90252

13.46149

75

INE717C01025

Mangalam Industrial Finance Limited

65.6893

17.9642

37.92293

76

INE159N01027

Viji Finance Limited

2.062588

1.345358

1.183829

77

INE909D01026

Sharp Investments Ltd

4.593245

3.435433

18.34073

78

INE191P01017

Gcm Capital Advisors Limited

13.29383

6.929059

7.539857

79

INE266P01017

West Leisure Resorts Limited

205.6268

208.7357

400.1417

80

INE792G01011

Nam Securities Ltd.

820.5351

1027.282

1197.377

81

INE502O01018

Sps Finquest Limited

15.59147

7.64423

8.782627

82

INE296Q01012

Moneyboxx Finance Limited

17.17511

13.21003

22.58666

83

INE901C01017

Thirani Projects Limited

28.08908

6.427387

67.21492

84

INE745P01010

Amarnath Securities Ltd.

11.18732

14.89283

45.02587

85

INE172D01021

Capital Trade Links Limited

14.66105

27.76381

21.39695

86

INE516P01015

Ramchandra Leasing & Finance Limited

8.762523

9.345118

9.609313

87

INE404F01031

Tti Enterprise Limited

197.1659

28.83029

30.68712

88

INE457P01020

Toyam Industries Limited

169.5804

18.08372

25.12526

89

INE868G01019

Gajanan Securities Services Ltd.

2.153702

2.825923

2.804808

90

INE840I01014

Real Touch Finance Limited

13.93596

71.38422

73.53469

91

INE837C01013

Qgo Finance Limited

13.77886

14.30447

10.1047

92

INE729C01020

Purshottam Investofin Limited

8.107802

52.15502

73.416

93

INE898Q01015

Naysaa Securities Limited

1.053122

220.8899

1678.341

94

INE937K01014

Econo Trade (India) Limited

8.252367

10.17158

27.04551

95

INE475D01010

Suchitra Finance & Trading Company Limited

14.40015

15.24908

8.438691

96

INE761Q01015

Vibrant Global Capital Limited

103.9182

130.9188

149.7622

97

INE480D01010

Niyogin Fintech Limited

20.29062

37.72919

127.8596

98

INE131Q01011

Asia Capital Limited

16.49335

22.50079

838.6915

99

INE149Q01013

Akashdeep Metal Industries Limited

10.33743

13.97816

14.28206

100

INE997C01015

Goenka Business & Finance Limited

88.56162

32.82807

16.61718

101

INE918C01029

Gilada Finance & Investments Ltd.

10.29754

3.840083

23.76496

102

INE242Q01016

Meenakshi Enterprises Ltd.

16.95167

18.7539

31.37941

103

INE892C01018

Scintilla Commercial & Credit Limited

71.17235

108.1588

129.1094

104

INE655P01029

Panafic Industrials Ltd

3.547376

4.047249

8.454578

105

INE985Q01010

Sri Amarnath Finance Limited

19.09628

14.82535

17.46365

106

INE183Q01012

Continental Securities Limited

38.26052

32.41373

28.20584

107

INE370Q01015

Nexus Surgical and Medicare Limited

393.4735

785.2601

49.81134

108

INE243E01010

Galada Finance Limited

1.772234

1.754145

17.23936

109

INE030Q01015

Emerald Leasing Finance & Investment Company Limited

26.9314

43.23229

43.56042

110

INE513C01010

Octal Credit Capital Ltd.

4.111967

5.347254

51.09841

111

INE661Q01017

Vani Commercials Limited

6.613829

7.624694

68.44558

112

INE554R01012

Karnavati Finance Limited

9.02603

14.30045

13.73446

113

INE321M01017

Sonal Mercantile Limited

10.24471

8.424339

5.201733

114

INE211D01027

Abhinav Leasing & Finance Limited

553.1842

323.4592

51.17599

115

INE820R01017

Sspn Finance Limited

12.9791

18.9042

9.729343

116

INE736P01019

Northlink Fiscal and Capital Services Ltd.

35.07705

154.0287

123.7327

117

INE291E01019

Paul Merchants Ltd.

829.0077

9.553384

16.22303

118

INE029H01016

Sujala Trading & Holdings Ltd.

4.667759

8.291404

63.22634

119

INE822Q01015

Sarvottam Finvest Limited

115.7072

198.0402

257.8565

120

INE738P01015

Helpage Finlease Ltd.

7.282401

8.145193

7.11627

121

INE206F01022

Authum Investment & Infrastructure Limited

15.31809

-0.99229

-56.026

122

INE960C01013

Capfin India Limited

46.51543

12.87092

21.91572

123

INE618R01015

Moongipa Securities Ltd.

31.66261

2.045635

2.717609

124

INE563C01015

Saumya Consultants Ltd.

22.00028

22.43387

21.86988

125

INE446E01019

Surya India Limited

9.302971

9.497725

9.381769

126

INE653R01012

Symbiox Investment & Trading Co. Ltd.

8.093172

4.735038

4.120496

127

INE897B01019

Krishna Capital And Securities Limited

33.20779

59.91894

32.35357

128

INE636B01011

Acme Resources Limited

9.093561

13.68068

6.291153

129

INE836B01017

Satin Creditcare Network Limited

18.18262

21.64874

22.73822

130

INE661F01010

Brilliant Portfolios Ltd.

8.987595

8.599235

15.20745

131

INE201C01012

Richfield Financial Services Ltd.

35.63514

47.75042

282.1135

132

INE761R01013

Typhoon Financial Services Limited

14.96711

6.41369

3.844483

133

INE270F01010

Pariksha Fin-Invest-Lease Limited

27.55496

6.824091

57.23413

134

INE721C01019

Garbi Finvest Limited

18.27475

15.53765

18.26686

135

INE269F01012

Adharshila Capital Services Limited

4.382208

2.580255

42.32324

136

INE766D01020

Smart Finsec Limited

143.2517

84.85742

41.00309

137

INE805Q01028

Adcon Capital Services Limited

76.37901

49.45394

7.352235

138

INE364T01012

Navigant Corporate Advisors Limited

37.18583

40.78263

46.31382

139

INE217S01014

Apoorva Leasing Finance & Investment Company Limited

13.43044

23.88366

26.22964

140

INE108T01013

F Mec International Financial Services Limited

14.34236

19.24603

7.814213

141

INE728Q01014

Shivansh Finserv Limited

25.01845

40.7581

37.51853

142

INE681Q01015

Delta Industrial Resources Limited

39.57172

10.6806

298.7388

143

INE727C01016

Oracle Credit Limited

34.55124

66.53227

52.2164

144

INE368E01023

Bcl Enterprises Limited

37.67471

14.81181

68.59506

145

INE562S01013

Blueblood Ventures Limited

0.484366

2.008747

0.623729

146

INE948Q01018

Bfl Asset Finvest Limited

27.71302

-10.3249

32.15881

147

INE332Q01015

Kapil Raj Finance Ltd.

17.58794

7.628683

3.306183

148

INE874E01012

Dynamic Archistructures Limited

100.3918

135.0038

13.11924

149

INE064T01018

Interactive Financial Services Limited

13.88554

28.03725

51.31415

150

INE178T01024

Advik Capital Limited

41.97956

50.06571

39.30959

151

INE574R01028

Superior Finlease Limited

3.997063

3.592778

3.262659

152

INE399S01010

Franklin Leasing and Finance Limited

4.209849

23.11487

24.232

153

INE334L01012

Ujjivan Financial Services Limited

16.4562

16.65652

15.2231

154

INE616F01022

Rsd Finance Limited

25.36316

35.15811

30.47512

155

INE858Q01019

Medico Intercontinental Limited

229.0199

228.607

114.4468

156

INE217E01014

Bazel International Limited

7.062494

12.04727

11.15784

157

INE890S01018

Visco Trade Associates Ltd

25.24449

50.05841

24.38045

158

INE202R01026

Arc Finance Limited

11.8579

15.74049

8.852364

159

INE268T01015

Supra Pacific Management Consultancy Limited

8.471678

10.66604

9.589025

160

INE964R01013

Regency Fincorp Limited

9.906431

10.04939

8.974302

161

INE894E01028

Salem Erode Investments Ltd.

11.64533

8.0584

33.23068

162

INE850R01014

Corporate Merchant Bankers Limited

34.39024

19.77221

30.60494

163

INE245H01018

Marg Techno Projects Limited

9.806606

11.46744

8.624667

164

INE615R01029

Dhanvarsha Finvest Limited

19.10768

43.81991

38.11215

165

INE715Q01011

Leading Leasing Finance and Investment Co. Limited

19.30412

4.9658

13.49038

166

INE081R01016

Kd Leisures Limited

19.55197

18.34874

45.06196

167

INE989S01034

Ontic Finserve Limited

263.7975

230.6299

55.27276

168

INE953W01016

Escorp Asset Management Limited

7.602449

11.04014

25.76541

169

INE949C01016

Classic Leasing & Finance Ltd.

1.082177

1.170458

0.411056

170

INE453S01015

Kanungo Financiers Limited

1.542619

7.314189

3.615804

171

INE348L01012

Mas Financial Services Limited

13.13987

16.08276

17.3837

172

INE758W01019

Apex Capital and Finance Limited

9.172007

12.52265

3.521436

173

INE896L01010

Indostar Capital Finance Limited

14.30698

16.92972

11.75576

174

INE741K01010

Creditaccess Grameen Ltd.

17.18876

17.83025

14.69573

175

INE726X01014

Spa Capital Services Limited

1.385411

1.198591

161.0465

176

INE512R01010

Aar Shyam India Investment Company Limited

9.693234

-12.4109

14.5192

177

INE572J01011

Spandana Sphoorty Financial Limited

19.02893

26.51828

22.41374

178

INE466L01020

Iifl Wealth Management Limited

21.22112

13.34029

17.09758

179

INE08KJ01012

Apm Finvest Limited

42.43097

5.683987

6.833594

180

INE317W01014

Jsg Leasing Limited

3.148882

4.23594

3.211883

181

INE771C01014

Easun Capital Markets Limited

127.046

96.2943

6.227375

182

INE165G01010

Assam Entrade Limited

64.72836

19.0561

9.404601

183

INE018E01016

Sbi Cards And Payment Services Limited

38.01998

39.60862

35.29724

184

INE018S01016

Rita Finance and Leasing Limited

4.344203

7.296571

8.722212

185

INE660A01013

Sundaram Finance Ltd

13.48541

11.39567

13.37769

186

INE094B01013

Ashika Credit Capital Limited

55.96114

30.66633

30.3896

 

Table 2

Table 2

S. NO

ISIN No

Issuer Name

Mar-2021

Mar-2020

Mar-2019

1

INE442C01012

Charms Industries Ltd

Distress

Safe

Safe

2

INE348I01018

Bervin Investments and Leasing Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

3

INE373D01017

Gujarat Investa Ltd.,

Safe

Safe

Safe

4

INE671D01014

Hasti Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

5

INE890B01014

Upsurge Investment and Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

6

INE804B01023

Mega Corporation Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

7

INE07P301011

Systematix Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

8

INE271D01013

Sungold Capital Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

9

INE628F01019

Indergiri Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

10

INE623D01015

Step Two Corporation Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

11

INE508J01015

Beryl Securities Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

12

INE483D01014

Rap Media Ltd.

Grey

Safe

Safe

13

INE802A01037

Bampsl Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

14

INE180C01026

Capri Global Capital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

15

INE546D01018

Tokyo Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

16

INE528C01018

Thirdwave Financial Intermediaries

Safe

Safe

Safe

17

INE224C01014

Inani Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

18

INE621B01021

Prithvi Exchange (India) Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

19

INE429Q01019

Prism Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

20

INE703D01023

Biogen Pharmachem Industries Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

21

INE131D01019

G. K. Consultants Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

22

INE348D01019

Munoth Financial Services Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

23

INE935D01013

Indus Finance Limited

Grey

Distress

Safe

24

INE884X01011

Trinity League India Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

25

INE283D01018

Anjani Finance Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

26

INE316D01024

Vertex Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

27

INE914B01012

Shree Metalloys Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

28

INE839E01023

Odyssey Corporation Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

29

INE056J01015

R. B. Gupta Financials Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

30

INE516F01016

Abhinav Capital Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

31

INE807D01030

Sagar Productions Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

32

INE957E01031

Brijlaxmi Leasing & Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

33

INE440E01012

SMC Credits Ltd.

Grey

Safe

Grey

34

INE514C01018

Minolta Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

35

INE550B01022

Hb Stockholdings Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Distress

36

INE027F01014

Siel Financial Services Ltd.

Distress

Distress

Distress

37

INE023A01030

Nalwa Sons Investment Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

38

INE389D01013

Tcfc Finance Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

39

INE602C01011

Kjmc Corporate Advisors (India) Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

40

INE418B01048

Vaarad Ventures Ltd

Safe

Grey

Safe

41

INE638B01025

Hb Portfolio Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

42

INE330E01023

Transcorp International Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

43

INE525F01017

Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd.

Grey

Distress

Grey

44

INE722A01011

Shriram-City Union Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

45

INE530B01024

Iifl Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

46

INE774D01024

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

47

INE347H01012

Inditrade Capital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

48

INE804H01012

Transwarranty Finance Limited

Distress

Distress

Safe

49

INE420C01042

Paisalo Digital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

50

INE274G01010

Dhani Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

51

INE083K01017

Bengal & Assam Company Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

52

INE143K01019

Essar Securities Limited

Safe

Distress

Safe

53

INE519C01017

Summit Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

54

INE560K01014

Ptc India Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

55

INE414G01012

Muthoot Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

56

INE726L01019

Delphi World Money Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

57

INE912L01015

Onelife Capital Advisors Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

58

INE793G01035

Pmc Fincorp Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

59

INE241F01011

Futuristic Solutions Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

60

INE883L01018

Pyxis Finvest Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

61

INE456N01019

Comfort Commotrade Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

62

INE176N01021

Caspian Corporate Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

63

INE234G01022

Trio Mercantile & Trading Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

64

INE274M01018

Comfort Fincap Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

65

INE902D01013

Kifs Financial Services Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

66

INE474O01010

India Finsec Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

67

INE340O01013

Money Masters Leasing & Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

68

INE030P01017

Alacrity Securities Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

69

INE200P01016

Gcm Commodity & Derivatives Limited

Distress

Distress

Distress

70

INE326P01019

S R G Securities Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

71

INE218P01018

Amrapali Capital And Finance Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

72

INE325P01011

Stellar Capital Services Limited

Grey

Grey

Safe

73

INE947C01010

B. P. Capital Ltd.

Distress

Distress

Distress

74

INE555P01013

Kiran Vyapar Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

75

INE717C01025

Mangalam Industrial Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

76

INE159N01027

Viji Finance Limited

Grey

Distress

Distress

77

INE909D01026

Sharp Investments Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

78

INE191P01017

Gcm Capital Advisors Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

79

INE266P01017

West Leisure Resorts Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

80

INE792G01011

Nam Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

81

INE502O01018

Sps Finquest Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

82

INE296Q01012

Moneyboxx Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

83

INE901C01017

Thirani Projects Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

84

INE745P01010

Amarnath Securities Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

85

INE172D01021

Capital Trade Links Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

86

INE516P01015

Ramchandra Leasing & Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

87

INE404F01031

Tti Enterprise Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

88

INE457P01020

Toyam Industries Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

89

INE868G01019

Gajanan Securities Services Ltd.

Grey

Grey

Grey

90

INE840I01014

Real Touch Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

91

INE837C01013

Qgo Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

92

INE729C01020

Purshottam Investofin Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

93

INE898Q01015

Naysaa Securities Limited

Distress

Safe

Safe

94

INE937K01014

Econo Trade (India) Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

95

INE475D01010

Suchitra Finance & Trading Company Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

96

INE761Q01015

Vibrant Global Capital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

97

INE480D01010

Niyogin Fintech Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

98

INE131Q01011

Asia Capital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

99

INE149Q01013

Akashdeep Metal Industries Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

100

INE997C01015

Goenka Business & Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

101

INE918C01029

Gilada Finance & Investments Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

102

INE242Q01016

Meenakshi Enterprises Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

103

INE892C01018

Scintilla Commercial & Credit Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

104

INE655P01029

Panafic Industrials Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

105

INE985Q01010

Sri Amarnath Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

106

INE183Q01012

Continental Securities Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

107

INE370Q01015

Nexus Surgical and Medicare Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

108

INE243E01010

Galada Finance Limited

Distress

Distress

Safe

109

INE030Q01015

Emerald Leasing Finance & Investment Company Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

110

INE513C01010

Octal Credit Capital Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

111

INE661Q01017

Vani Commercials Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

112

INE554R01012

Karnavati Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

113

INE321M01017

Sonal Mercantile Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

114

INE211D01027

Abhinav Leasing & Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

115

INE820R01017

Sspn Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

116

INE736P01019

Northlink Fiscal and Capital Services Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

117

INE291E01019

Paul Merchants Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

118

INE029H01016

Sujala Trading & Holdings Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

119

INE822Q01015

Sarvottam Finvest Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

120

INE738P01015

Helpage Finlease Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

121

INE206F01022

Authum Investment & Infrastructure Limited

Safe

Distress

Distress

122

INE960C01013

Capfin India Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

123

INE618R01015

Moongipa Securities Ltd.

Safe

Grey

Grey

124

INE563C01015

Saumya Consultants Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

125

INE446E01019

Surya India Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

126

INE653R01012

Symbiox Investment & Trading Co. Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

127

INE897B01019

Krishna Capital And Securities Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

128

INE636B01011

Acme Resources Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

129

INE836B01017

Satin Creditcare Network Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

130

INE661F01010

Brilliant Portfolios Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

131

INE201C01012

Richfield Financial Services Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

132

INE761R01013

Typhoon Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

133

INE270F01010

Pariksha Fin-Invest-Lease Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

134

INE721C01019

Garbi Finvest Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

135

INE269F01012

Adharshila Capital Services Limited

Safe

Grey

Safe

136

INE766D01020

Smart Finsec Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

137

INE805Q01028

Adcon Capital Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

138

INE364T01012

Navigant Corporate Advisors Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

139

INE217S01014

Apoorva Leasing Finance & Investment Company Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

140

INE108T01013

F Mec International Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

141

INE728Q01014

Shivansh Finserv Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

142

INE681Q01015

Delta Industrial Resources Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

143

INE727C01016

Oracle Credit Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

144

INE368E01023

Bcl Enterprises Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

145

INE562S01013

Blueblood Ventures Limited

Distress

Grey

Distress

146

INE948Q01018

Bfl Asset Finvest Limited

Safe

Distress

Safe

147

INE332Q01015

Kapil Raj Finance Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

148

INE874E01012

Dynamic Archistructures Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

149

INE064T01018

Interactive Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

150

INE178T01024

Advik Capital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

151

INE574R01028

Superior Finlease Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

152

INE399S01010

Franklin Leasing and Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

153

INE334L01012

Ujjivan Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

154

INE616F01022

Rsd Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

155

INE858Q01019

Medico Intercontinental Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

156

INE217E01014

Bazel International Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

157

INE890S01018

Visco Trade Associates Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

158

INE202R01026

Arc Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

159

INE268T01015

Supra Pacific Management Consultancy Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

160

INE964R01013

Regency Fincorp Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

161

INE894E01028

Salem Erode Investments Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

162

INE850R01014

Corporate Merchant Bankers Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

163

INE245H01018

Marg Techno Projects Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

164

INE615R01029

Dhanvarsha Finvest Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

165

INE715Q01011

Leading Leasing Finance and Investment Co. Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

166

INE081R01016

Kd Leisures Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

167

INE989S01034

Ontic Finserve Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

168

INE953W01016

Escorp Asset Management Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

169

INE949C01016

Classic Leasing & Finance Ltd.

Distress

Distress

Distress

170

INE453S01015

Kanungo Financiers Limited

Distress

Safe

Safe

171

INE348L01012

Mas Financial Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

172

INE758W01019

Apex Capital and Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

173

INE896L01010

Indostar Capital Finance Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

174

INE741K01010

Creditaccess Grameen Ltd.

Safe

Safe

Safe

175

INE726X01014

Spa Capital Services Limited

Distress

Distress

Safe

176

INE512R01010

Aar Shyam India Investment Company Limited

Safe

Distress

Safe

177

INE572J01011

Spandana Sphoorty Financial Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

178

INE466L01020

Iifl Wealth Management Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

179

INE08KJ01012

Apm Finvest Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

180

INE317W01014

Jsg Leasing Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

181

INE771C01014

Easun Capital Markets Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

182

INE165G01010

Assam Entrade Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

183

INE018E01016

Sbi Cards And Payment Services Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

184

INE018S01016

Rita Finance and Leasing Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

185

INE660A01013

Sundaram Finance Ltd

Safe

Safe

Safe

186

INE094B01013

Ashika Credit Capital Limited

Safe

Safe

Safe

 

Table 3

Table 3

Mar-21

Mar-20

Mar-19

Safe Zone

168

166

174

Distress Zone

11

14

8

Grey Zone

7

6

4

 

Figure 1

Figure 1 Prediction Results

 

 

4. FINDINGS AND RESULTS

Based on the results, 11 out of 186 companies were in unsafe zone in 2021. Similarly, 14 out of 186 companies were in unsafe zone in 2020, and 8 out of 186 companies were in unsafe zone in 2019. It is founded that 7 out of 186 companies were in grey zone that is these companies have moderate chance of filing for bankruptcy. Similarly, 6 out of 186 companies were founded to be in grey zone in 2020 and 4 out of 186 companies were in grey zone in 2019. Mossman et al. (2005), Rao and Atmanathan (2013), Vel and Zala (2019), Bărbuţă-Mişu and Codreanu (2014), Utami et al. (2020), Michelle (1989).

 

5. CONCLUSION

The prediction results of this project accuracy fall between 80-90%. This project was aims to provide information to the stakeholders, mainly investors who have plan to invest in these NBFC companies, about which companies are potentially stable and potentially unstable like they might have the chances being bankrupted, and to alert investors whose investments are at risk and suggest them to safeguard their interests in the investments.

 

6. AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Methodology, Formal analysis, Project administration, Supervision, Writing-review & Editing, and Final approval are contributed by Author 1(Name deleted for blind review). Conceptualisation, Formal analysis, Writing-original draft, Software, Data curation, and Writing-review & Editing are contributed by Author 2 (Name deleted for blind review)

 

7. DATA AVAILABILITY

The raw data for the research was available in these websites https://www.moneycontrol.com, https://groww.in, https://www.bseindia.com. The readers can get the data from these websites by entering the ISSIN number of the particular company as mentioned in this paper (ex. INE709B01016).

 

8. DISCLAIMER

A statement that the views expressed in the submitted article are his or her own and not an official position of the institution or funder.

 

CONFLICT OF INTERESTS

The authors declare that they have no financial or personal relationship that may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article. 

 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

There are only two authors for this paper. Hence all the details of both are mentioned. Nobody has been more important to me in the pursuit of this project than the members of my family. I would like to thank my parents, whose love and guidance are with me in whatever I pursue. They are the ultimate role models.

 

 

REFERENCES

Bărbuţă-Mişu, N. and Codreanu, E.S. (2014). Analysis and Prediction of The Bankruptcy Risk in Romanian Building Sector Companies. Ekonomika, 93(2), 131-146. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2014.2.3542.

Hillegeist, S.A., Keating, E.K., Cram, D.P., Lundstedt, K.G. (2004). Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy. Review of Accounting Studies 9, 5–34. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RAST.0000013627.90884.b7.

Kaur, S. (2017). Comparative Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Models : An Indian perspective. Dias Technology Review, 14(2), 21-28.

Michelle, J. (1989). The Corporate Bankruptcy Decision. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2),129-151.

Mossman, C., Bell, G., Swartz, L., & Turtle, H. (2005). An Empirical Comparison of Bankruptcy Models. The Financial Review, 33(2), 35-54.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.1998.tb01367.x.  

Mulyadi, D. (2020). Analysis Prediction of Bankruptcy Business by Using the Method Altman Z Score and Springate (Case study in PT holcim Indonesia TBK). International Journal of Innovation, Creativity Change, 12(5),723-735.

Rao, N. V. and Atmanathan, G. (2013). Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Models And Their Effectiveness : An Indian Perspective. Great Lakes Herald. 7(2), 3-15.

Utami, R., Siregar, H., Syarifuddin, F. (2020). The Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Model with Adjustment of Earning Management on Textile and Garment Sub-Sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Research and Review, 7(1), 208-218.

Vel, R. and Zala, P. (2019). Bankruptcy Prediction Using Multivariate Discriminant Analysis - Empirical Evidence from Cases Referred to NCLT. International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering, 8(9), 13-17.

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

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